Global Airport Retailing | Verdict Channel Report

Summary
After two years of slowing growth due to a weak global economy, we forecast that airport retail sales will gain momentum in 2014 and grow by 7.7%. More passengers and higher levels of spend per passenger, as the economy improves, the BRIC countries strengthen and MINT nations emerge. The future prospects for the channel remain buoyant, with growth improving every year to 11.0% in 2019.

Key Findings
- Forecasts of global and regional sales, passenger numbers, spend per passenger and sector spend up to 2019 to enable opportunities to be identified.

- Briefings on the 10 main players in the airport sector, with market shares up to 2014, coverage of recent key events and what it means for the market.

- An analysis of the major trends within the airport sector, how it will affect it operators and if a potential threat, how it can be overcome.

Synopsis
While all sectors are set to achieve robust growth over the next five years, the best performing ones will be beauty products and alcohol. Beauty products will be supported by new products stimulating demand and a reluctance by customers to cut back. The ability to not pay tax or duty on alcohol at an airport will support this sector up to 2019.

The growth of low cost carriers (LCC) continues, and accounted for 24.8% of all air traffic in 2012. This growth tends to suppress airport spend as these shoppers are either ineligible for duty free or have little appetite for it. With more long haul flights for LCC's planned, retailers must adjust their offer to serve these customers.

Dufry is set to retain top spot in the airport market in 2014 with a share just under 10%. The company has been driven by acquisitions, such as the complete acquisition of Hellenic Duty Free in 2013, and significant expansion plans within Europe, Middle East and North America, with new stores set to open in Dallas, JFK in New York, and Brazil.

Reasons?To?Buy
- Which regions and sectors are set to outperform the market over the next five years? What factors are behind this performance?

- How will online and multichannel retail affect the airport retail market?

- Which companies are set to gain share in 2014 and who is set to fall back?

1 Overview
2 Key Findings
2.1 We expect growth through airports to ease marginally in 2015
2.2 2015 passenger numbers will remain consistent with 2014
2.3 Beauty and electricals sales drive growth
2.4 Growth set to accelerate over next five years
2.5 Asia Pacific drives the market, both now and in the future
2.6 Relaxation of visas rules for Asian passengers will increase airport sales
2.7 Following its acquisitions, Dufry is the undisputed market leader
2.8 Greater consolidation will change the landscape of the channel
2.9 Airside will increase its share of the market by 2020
3 Market Size
3.1 Market definition
3.2 Overall market
3.2.1 Sales growth remains consistent in 2015
3.3 Market size by region
3.3.1 Asia Pacific drives growth globally
3.3.2 Europe continues its recovery
3.3.3 The Americas and the Middle East and Africa continue to gather momentum
3.4 Passenger numbers by region
3.4.1 The Middle East and Africa has been the fastest growing region since 2012
3.4.2 Passenger numbers in Asia Pacific continue to cool
3.4.3 A recovery in the euro supported the European sector
3.4.4 We expect the momentum in the Americas to continue into 2015
3.5 Spend per passenger
3.6 Market size by category
3.6.1 Beauty sees strongest growth in 2015
3.6.2 Electricals growth ratchets upwards
3.6.3 Alcohol sales recover in 2015 after a challenging year
3.6.4 Tobacco's share of the global airport market will decline sharply in 2015
4 Market Forecast
4.1 Market size by region
4.1.1 Global sales continue to rise
4.1.2 Asia Pacific fastest growing market
4.1.3 Asia Pacific market will nearly double by 2020
4.1.4 New airports open to satisfy increasing demand
4.1.5 Europe sees slowest growth over next five years
4.1.6 Sales in Americas to grow 50.6% in next five years
4.2 Passenger numbers by region
4.3 Spend per passenger
4.3.1 Spend per passenger to increase across all regions
4.4 Market size by category
5 Outlook
5.1 Mobile and pre-order shopping
5.1.1 More airport retail operators now offer pre-order shopping
5.1.2 Pre-order purchases encourage more time-constrained customer to increase spend
5.1.3 Pre-order shopping benefits from a captive audience
5.1.4 Operators aiming to outdo each other in terms of convenience
5.1.5 For pre-order to be effective, a robust infrastructure is required
5.1.6 Improving how the website looks will help attract luxury brands and drive sales
5.1.7 Operators should capitalise more on driving sales through mobiles
5.1.8 Shopping walls for grocery are an option to drive sales through mobiles
5.1.9 Increasing awareness of this offer is pivotal
5.2 Relaxation of Asia Pacific visas
5.2.1 The UK has relaxed its visa requirements
5.2.2 Many countries have worked to attract Chinese tourists
5.2.3 Growing economy and perceptions of disposable income fuel this desire
5.2.4 China has a strong appetite for luxury products
5.2.5 Chinese luxury shoppers prefer more understated products
5.2.6 India extends visa-on-arrival scheme
5.2.7 Boosting visitor numbers a focus for Indian government
5.2.8 Passenger growth will drive duty free spend
5.2.9 Success dependent on duty free and airport operators working closely together
5.3 Increasing access to airside
5.3.1 Zurich airport invited non-passengers to go airside
5.3.2 Others implemented similar events
5.3.3 Security is a key consideration
5.3.4 Speed with which shoppers can get airside is important too
5.3.5 Who pays for excess duty will determine the promotion for the event
5.3.6 Restrictions need to be communicated clearly to customers
5.3.7 Need to maximise dwell time among shoppers
5.3.8 Timing of Zurich and Pittsburgh event would work best
5.3.9 Airports and duty free operators need to work together to maximise returns
5.4 Greater consolidation within travel retail expected
5.4.1 Travel retail sees its largest acquisition
5.4.2 Improved margins a key benefit of consolidation
5.4.3 Becoming larger players will create an upward spiral
5.4.4 Faster entry into new markets is another advantage
5.4.5 Consolidation also enables retailers to shore up weak parts of their offer
5.4.6 Large integration projects may take a significant share of resources
5.4.7 Remaining a nimble retailer at such a size will be tough
5.4.8 Operators run the risk of homogeneity
5.4.9 Operators will increasingly acquire or be acquired
5.5 Falling oil prices will impact Russia severely
5.5.1 The price of oil fell sharply toward the end of 2014
5.5.2 This drop will significantly impact Russia
5.5.3 Russian and other European airports have seen their 2014 suffer as a result
5.5.4 While the market will recover, it will suffer in the short term
6 Aer Rianta International
6.1 Company information
6.2 Verdict outlook
6.2.1 India should remain important despite Mumbai withdrawal
6.2.2 Middle East will provide opportunities for growth
6.2.3 Innovation will help mature domestic market
6.2.4 Improving service proposition will help growth
6.3 Recent key events
6.3.1 Pulls out of Kunming and Mumbai International airports
6.3.2 Acquires managing stake in Cyprus operations
6.3.3 Wins the Auckland tender
6.3.4 Promotions help Delhi Duty Free post strong profits
6.3.5 Launches personal shopping service at Dublin airport
6.4 Proposition
6.5 Financials
6.5.1 Makes profit by selling off Russia/CIS interests
6.6 Market share
7 DFS Group
7.1 Company information
7.2 Verdict outlook
7.2.1 Will receive boost from operations in Singapore
7.2.2 Premium positioning should boost growth opportunities
7.2.3 Customer engagement strategy will drive footfall to stores
7.2.4 Strategic partnerships will be key in attracting Chinese consumers
7.3 Recent key events
7.3.1 Enters European market with move into Venice
7.3.2 Unveils plans for new format store at Singapore Changi Airport
7.3.3 Will enter Cambodian market with T Galleria mall near Angkor Wat
7.3.4 Partners with Bacardi to launch campaign across key airports
7.3.5 Targets Chinese shoppers with partnerships with Chinese players
7.3.6 Files misconduct case against Guam International Airport Authority
7.3.7 Completes San Francisco Airport renovation
7.3.8 Launches global beauty campaign
7.3.9 Receives one year extension to duty free contract at Los Angeles
7.4 Proposition
7.5 Financials
7.5.1 Trading update
7.6 Market share
8 Dubai Duty Free
8.1 Company information
8.2 Verdict outlook
8.2.1 Changing demographic of passengers
8.2.2 Dubai Airports app offers multichannel potential to retailers
8.2.3 New opportunities for growth
8.2.4 Understanding consumers at Al Maktoum International Airport
8.2.5 Partnerships and promotions remain at centre of strategy
8.3 Recent key events
8.3.1 DDF celebrates 31st anniversary leading to new monthly sales record
8.3.2 Dubai Airports launches new mobile app
8.3.3 Exclusive partnerships with brands boost sales
8.3.4 DDF continues to enhance retail operations at Dubai International Airport
8.3.5 Growth in passenger traffic through Dubai's airports
8.3.6 Passenger numbers from Russia drop, but grow from India
8.4 Financials
8.5 Market share
9 Dufry
9.1 Company information
9.2 Verdict outlook
9.2.1 While the integration of Nuance and World Duty Free Group will be challenging, it offers significant benefits
9.2.2 Its expansion in Brazil should reap significant rewards for it over the next five years
9.2.3 Should roll out its pre-order shopping to a wider base faster
9.2.4 Lack of presence in Australia raises questions about Dufry's involvement in this market
9.3 Recent key events
9.3.1 Acquires majority stake in World Duty Free Group in March 2015
9.3.2 Dufry acquires Nuance in June 2014
9.3.3 Dufry aims to achieve CHF70m in savings via synergies
9.3.4 Roberto Graziani and Richard Rendek have both left the business
9.3.5 Brazil remains a key area for Dufry
9.3.6 Dufry wins tenders in Kenya and Nigeria
9.3.7 Helps Gap enter the Spanish market
9.3.8 Challenges the award of Kiev tender
9.3.9 Loses the Sydney tender to Gebr Heinemann
9.3.10 Nuance extends Orlando contract until 2022
9.3.11 Introduces pre-order shopping at Bengaluru International Airport
9.4 Proposition
9.5 Financials
9.6 Market share
10 Duty Free Americas
10.1 Company information
10.2 Verdict outlook
10.2.1 Multichannel expansion offers growth prospects
10.2.2 Exploit growing market in Latin America
10.3 Recent key events
10.3.1 Expands at Washington Dulles International Airport
10.3.2 Launches online pre-order system
10.3.3 Wins first Brazilian airport duty free contract
10.3.4 Opens exclusive Diageo liquor store in Colombia
10.3.5 Appeals lower court ruling in dispute with Estee Lauder
10.3.6 Introduces luxury sunglasses concept store with Luxottica
10.4 Proposition
10.5 Financials
10.5.1 Growing airport retail operations only one part of the business
10.6 Market share
11 Gebruder Heinemann
11.1 Company information
11.2 Verdict outlook
11.2.1 Asia Pacific expansion gains momentum
11.2.2 Must manage exposure to volatile Russian market
11.2.3 Focus on multichannel strategy
11.3 Recent key events
11.3.1 Heinemann wins heavily contested contract for Sydney Airport
11.3.2 Partners with Etihad to offer customer rewards
11.3.3 Enters North Africa with Egypt and Tunisia tender wins
11.3.4 Wins Istanbul tender in January 2015
11.3.5 Oreo helps Gebr Heinemann grow confectionery sales
11.3.6 Partners with Finnair for inflight duty free deal
11.3.7 Launches home delivery service in Germany
11.3.8 Set to invest €130m in 2015
11.4 Proposition
11.5 Financials
11.6 Market share
12 Lotte Duty Free
12.1 Company information
12.2 Verdict outlook
12.2.1 Significant long-term aspirations for international growth
12.2.2 Retaining the Incheon tender sets the business in good stead
12.2.3 Increasing presence in Indonesia will boost performance
12.3 Recent key events
12.3.1 Opens retail offer at Guam International Airport
12.3.2 Boutiques open at Guam
12.3.3 New CEO steps up
12.3.4 Increases presence within the Japanese market
12.3.5 Aiming to increase its presence in Indonesia
12.3.6 Has won four store packages at Incheon Airport
12.3.7 Lotte launches English pre-order site in December 2014
12.4 Proposition
12.5 Financials
12.6 Market share
13 LS Travel Retail
13.1 Company information
13.2 Proposition
13.2.1 Store concepts in Europe in 2015
13.2.2 Store concepts in Asia Pacific in 2015
13.2.3 Store concepts in North America in 2015
13.3 Verdict outlook
13.3.1 Food & Beverage division provides expansion opportunities
13.3.2 Asia Pacific offers growth
13.3.3 Personalisation will give competitive edge
13.3.4 Must focus on multichannel
13.4 Recent key events
13.4.1 Rebrands Aelia Duty Free with focus on digital
13.4.2 Bids for Istanbul Grand Airport duty free concession
13.4.3 Wins food and beverage concession at Iceland's Keflavik Airport
13.4.4 Wins five fashion tenders for Spanish airports
13.4.5 Opens new fashion stores at Shenzhen Airport
13.4.6 Grows Relay brand in India
13.4.7 Opens M&M concept store at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport
13.4.8 Opens MY Lifestyle Gallery store in Kuala Lumpur
13.4.9 Consolidates presence in Adelaide
13.5 Financials
13.6 Market share
14 Shilla Group
14.1 Company information
14.2 Proposition
14.3 Verdict outlook
14.3.1 New SME legislation could impact profitability
14.3.2 International expansion offers growth opportunities
14.4 Recent key events
14.4.1 Aiming to expand internationally by acquiring stake in DFASS and hiring former Nuance head
14.4.2 Changes imminent in Korean travel retail
14.4.3 Chinese visitor numbers continue to rise
14.4.4 Japanese visitor numbers drop due to weak yen
14.4.5 Shilla retains Incheon
14.4.6 Macau operations begin
14.4.7 Beauty concession opens at Changi Airport
14.4.8 Withdrawal from Kuala Lumpur
14.5 Financials
14.6 Market share
15 World Duty Free
15.1 Company information
15.2 Verdict outlook
15.2.1 Secure contractual base in key markets
15.2.2 Troubles at Barajas impact Spanish performance
15.3 Recent key events
15.3.1 Opens first duty free outlet in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province
15.3.2 Extends Heathrow and Los Angeles duty free offer
15.3.3 Wins Kuwaiti tender
15.3.4 Redevelops a number of British stores
15.3.5 Concierge desk improves service credentials
15.3.6 Becomes the only duty free operator at Helsinki Airport
15.4 Proposition
15.5 Financials
15.5.1 Trading update
15.5.2 Turnover by country
15.5.3 Turnover by category
15.6 Market share
16 Appendix
16.1 About Verdict Retail
16.2 Disclaimer